웨이퍼 3사(SUMCO, Shin-Etsu, GlobalWafers) LTA 만기 및 가격 협상 타임라인

LTA 만기 & 가격 협상 타임라인 (3사)
웨이퍼 3사 LTA 협상 타임라인 GlobalWafers가 2Q25 협상 시작, SUMCO 메모리 2026 중반, 로직 2027 시작 예정 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 현재 (May 2026) GlobalWafers 가격 협상 진행 중 신규 LTA 효력 (~2027) SUMCO (Memory) 현 LTA 연장 중 (volume 미달) 메모리 협상 시작 신규 LTA 효력 (2027~28) SUMCO (Logic) 현 LTA 연장 중 (가장 늦게 풀림) 로직 협상 시작 신규 LTA 효력 (2028~) Shin-Etsu 현 LTA "mainly through 2027" 재협상 / 신규 LTA
Source: SUMCO FQ3 2025/FQ1 2026 earnings call, Shin-Etsu FH1 2026 telephone conference (Oct 2025), GlobalWafers Q2/Q3 2025 calls (Doris Hsu).
경영진 핵심 멘트 (직접 인용)
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SUMCO — Jiro Ryuta (신임 President)
FQ1 2026 어닝콜, 2026년 5월 12일
"On prices, supply and demand are the determining factors, so it isn't the case that the only direction for prices is down. I would be happy to see a scenario where there is a tightening in supply/demand in which a customer asks for more volume and says they are willing to pay a higher price. Based on what we are seeing now, I believe we can look forward to gradual price increases. I think there is a good possibility that prices will rise in the near future."
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SUMCO — Mayuki Hashimoto (CEO·전 회장)
FQ3 2025 어닝콜, 2025년 11월 11일
"With regard to LTAs, the end dates have been significantly extended, so they are now expected to run until 2027 or '28. We have also seen extensions as well for memory, but not as far out as logic. My sense is that we will start to see discussions for memory next year [2026]. That is probably the case for logic as well, maybe at around this time next year [2026 말]."
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SUMCO — Shinichi Kubozoe (CFO)
FQ1 2026 어닝콜, 이전 라운드 LTA 회고
"(CLSA Yoshida 질문에 대한 답변) The current LTAs, which were signed 5 years ago, were successful in controlling price volatility on the one hand, but have proven to be less effective on volumes... we were very determined not to lower prices. In terms of how we thought about volume, the decision to grant flexibility did have an impact... I do feel that holding firm on price points is important in principle."
※ 같은 콜에서 CLSA Yoshida가 "이전 LTA는 3년 기간에 가격 50% 상승 baked in"이라고 언급, 경영진이 부인하지 않음.
SE
Shin-Etsu — Masahiko Todoroki (실리콘 사업부 SMD)
FH1 2026 텔레컨퍼런스, 2025년 10월 24일
"Our 300 mm wafer business is based on long-term agreements... Wafers for the advanced nodes used in semiconductors for AI are a high-cost product, so we consult with customers as necessary to set prices that are commensurate with their value. Another reason we expect demand for 300 mm wafers to grow in the medium term is the increasing use of two separate wafers in semiconductor devices."
※ 2023년 10월 콜: "LTAs concluded with each customer, mainly through 2027". "two separate wafers" = chiplet/3D stacking 의미, AI 칩 wafer 소비 multiplier.
GW
GlobalWafers — Doris Hsu (Chairlady)
Q2 2025 어닝콜, 2025년 8월
"Starting in the second quarter of 2025, GlobalWafers began negotiating price increases with some clients, although no agreement has been finalized. Price adjustments may happen as early as the fourth quarter or the first quarter of 2026. Long-term contracts accounted for more than 50% of revenue in the first half of 2025."
※ FY2025 콜(2026.03): "Pricing improvement is anticipated in the second half of 2026, especially for 12-inch wafers, due to high utilization and rising costs."
결론 프레임
유레카 — 협상 진도 격차가 곧 alpha
GlobalWafers는 이미 1년 전(2Q25)부터 협상 시작 → 1Q26부터 가격 효력 가능성
SUMCO는 LTA 비중이 더 높아 메모리 협상 2026년 중반, 로직 2026년 말 시작 → 효력 2027~28
SUMCO는 GlobalWafers보다 1년 늦게 가격 상승 효과 나타날 가능성
→ 따라서 단기 트레이드 우선순위: GlobalWafers > Siltronic > SUMCO
→ 다만 SUMCO는 300mm leading-edge에서 50%+ 점유 + AI-grade 집중 → 협상 시점이 늦더라도 가격 인상 폭이 더 클 수 있음
트리거 이벤트 — SUMCO FQ3 2026 (2026년 11월): "메모리 협상 시작" 코멘트 나오는지 watch